Despite COVID-19 and the early uncertainty, 2020 was a great year for Dallas-Ft. Worth Multifamily and we expect that momentum to carry into 2021. I took the time to analyze the top submarkets in DFW, attempting to narrow them down to the top three but landed on a top-four. I considered metrics such as rent growth, occupancy growth, deliveries, and new development, income levels, and historic and projected population growth. Although we have experienced a high demand for capital in all four submarkets, we expect even more in 2021.

Johnson County is the top Submarket in DFW and comprises cities south of Ft. Worth such as Burleson, Crowley, and Alvarado. A big driver for this market was their rent growth as they were ranked 2nd out of all the submarkets. Chisolm Trail has spurred growth by connecting the Benbrook suburbs to Downtown Fort Worth. We expect to see continued development along the $1.4B Chisolm Trail. The Medical District is the leading employment driver for this submarket which provides roughly 40,000 jobs. In the past 12 months, Southwest Fort Worth has seen nearly 2,500 deliveries and has absorbed almost 2,000 units. Despite COVID, we expect occupancy to continue to trend well and stabilize at 92% over the next 3-5 years. Over the past year, SW Fort Worth has seen a 1.5% increase in rent growth and we anticipate that to continue.

Coming in at number two of the top DFW Submarkets is Irving. The diverse economic base driven by many large companies relocating to the area has been a leading cause of such a strong performance. Again, despite the onset of the pandemic, leasing activity has remained strong along with healthy rent growth which is above the market average. We see blue-collar workforce in South Irving coupled with the more affluent Las Colinas area. Along with many corporations relocating to Irving, the industrial sector is a leading driver in the area proving for job growth as well. The strong supply of jobs has helped bolster the rent growth, while also keeping the occupancy high at a rate of about 95%, which is 4th among all other submarkets. Rent growth has been propped up by limited supply in the area along with consistent workforce housing.

South Dallas County has also performed well this past year and is tied with Arlington for the number three spot in the top submarkets. This submarket is made up of Duncanville, Lancaster, Cedar Hill, and Desoto. Supply chain and manufacturing have made this area one of the fastest-growing hubs for the industrial industry. The growing workforce is spurring population growth, leading to steady housing demand. Rent growth has also outpaced the other markets on the workforce housing product in the area giving it a top 10 ranking, respectively. Vacancy rates are also at near records lows at 6.2% and we expect this trend to carry well into 2021.

Closing out our list of top submarkets is Arlington which is performing right alongside South Dallas County. We have seen incredible velocity in this highly sought after market as investors have a strong appetite for Arlington multifamily product. Jerry Jones has helped create this stigma with his investment of over 3 billion dollars within a 2-mile area, which we all call the Entertainment District. Limited development in the Mid-Cities coupled with the high demand for inexpensive apartments has enabled vacancy rates to reach an all-time low. Leasing activity has been resilient through the pandemic along with rent growth of the value-add product. Arlington has seen 3.0% growth in asking rents over the past 12 months. There has also been an absorption of 1,100 units, keeping Occupancy strong at a clip of about 94%.

All in all, we will continue to see increased investor activity in Johnson County, Irving, South Dallas County, and Arlington – they have performed incredibly well for investors and we believe this will continue in 2021. With more and more people moving in from both coasts, and continued Fortune 500 companies making headlines by relocating corporate headquarters or expanding in DFW, we have the utmost confidence that Dallas-Fort Worth will continue to be the top market in the entire country for Multifamily. Please reach out to me or any other Greystone ISG broker if you would like to discuss in more detail, or receive a complimentary valuation of your asset.

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JOHNSON ARLINGTON S DALLAS IRVING
Rent Growth Rank 2 3 6 9
Occupancy Rank 1 8 6 4
Population Growth 15.0% 6.5% 10.8% 11.3%
2030 Projected Pop Growth 21.7% 7.7% 12.7% 11.4%
Median Income $64,359 $63,098 $63,795 $61,937
Asking Rent $1,100 $1,069 $1,112 $1,100
Avg. Home Mortgage $1,432 $1,409 $1,372 $1,394
Rent/Mortgage Δ 30% 32% 29% 40%
Unemployement Rate (Oct 2020) 5.7% 6.4%% 8.0% 6.0%

 

About the author:
Mark Allen is an Executive Managing Director at Greystone | Investment Sales Group in Dallas, TX. If you want to learn more about our Off-Market Opportunities, Multi-Family Listings, Land Sale Listings, Property Valuations, Debt Platform, or meet for coffee to exchange value-add ideas, contact our office:

Greystone Investment Sales Group
6320 LBJ Freeway, Suite 228, Dallas, TX, 75240
214.206.9559
www.greystoneisg.com